President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order on 25 February 2025 ordering an investigation to determine whether imports of copper, scrap copper and derivative copper products threaten to impair the United States (US) national security. Citing Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, the Secretary of Commerce will initiate an investigation and issue a report within 270 days after consulting with the Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Interior, Secretary of Energy and heads of other relevant executive departments and agencies to assess the national security risks associated with copper import dependency. Copper is a critical material for US defense, infrastructure and emerging technologies. The investigation will include all forms of copper, including:

• Raw mined copper
• Copper concentrates
• Refined copper
• Copper alloys
• Scrap copper
• Derivative products

Although the US has sufficient copper reserves, the concern is that the US smelting and refining capacity is not keeping up with global competitors. The White House emphasized in the Executive Order that "a single foreign producer dominates global copper smelting and refining, controlling over 50 percent of global smelting capacity and holding four of the top five largest refining facilities."

Part of the investigation involves an assessment of factors in 19 USC 1862(d) that are labeled as "domestic production for national defense; impact of foreign competition on economic welfare of domestic industries." Other relevant factors include:

• Defense, energy and critical infrastructure sector current and projected demand
• Ability of domestic production, smelting, refining and recycling to meet US demand
• Ability of foreign supply chains, particularly major exporters, to meet US demand
• Associated risks from the concentration of the country's copper imports from a small number of suppliers
• Foreign government subsidies, overcapacity and predatory trade practices impacting US industry competitiveness
• Economic impact from dumping and state-sponsored overproduction that results in artificially suppressed copper prices
• Potential ability of foreign countries to restrict copper exports through their control of refined copper supplies
• America's ability to increase its domestic copper mining, smelting and refining capacity to reduce reliance on imports
• Whether national security measures such as tariffs and quotas are needed, given the impact of current trade policies on domestic copper production

When the report is complete, the Secretary of Commerce will deliver its findings on:

• Whether US dependence on copper imports threatens national security
• Recommendations on mitigation strategies that include potential tariffs, export controls or incentives for increased domestic products
• Policy recommendations to strengthen the country's supply chain through use of investments, permitting reforms and enhanced recycling initiatives

Action for businesses

Given the Department of Commerce's investigation into copper imports, businesses must take proactive steps to ensure compliance if new requirements are implemented. The following actions could help businesses prepare for and adapt to these regulatory changes:

• Review import data to understand potential impact and liabilities.
• Evaluate or diversify supply chains for copper to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a limited number of foreign suppliers.
• Explore opportunities to invest in domestic copper.
• Prepare contingency plans to address potential disruptions in copper supply due to potential changes in trade policies and market conditions.
• Monitor any further updates or changes to the regulations and adjust processes as needed.